Research is at the heart of Toyota’s strategy at its own center. Here, between batteries or robotics, the exploration of machine learning and human behavior becomes a central element of the manufacturer’s strategy.
He’s the man who shook up the battery industry when he confirmed at CES in Las Vegas that solid-state batteries will be here by 2025. When you speak to Gill Pratt, CEO of the Toyota Research Institute (TRI), the science takes you from mobility to research into human behavior. He’s answering questions from a handful of journalists at Zaventem Airport, where last week’s event took place Toyota Motor Europe’s annual Kenshiki (“information” in Japanese) event..
What are the main problems in the development of the solid state battery?
First, there’s durability. As they move through a solid battery, the ions create a voltage. If it is too big, a crack will appear. One way to remedy this is to have a system that heals the cracks. The other solution is to avoid them with the right materials.
The other problem is that the process of making a solid state battery is much slower and the cost is higher. It is a technical challenge that is not insurmountable
They have explained to the forum that there will not be enough lithium for the batteries in the short term…
Yes. The IEA has a chart showing that if all the different policies around the world come true, Mines will be missing by a factor of 2. I expect more mines to open, but it will still be very difficult to fill the gap.
We expect prices to remain high and there will be lithium supply shortages for 10 to 15 years.
Do you think some companies can’t produce?
It takes much less time to build an assembly plant than it does to open mines. The pace of factory construction needs to be adjusted.
We tried to show a way to solve this problem. A cell in a car that drives 20 miles a day, in a battery pack that can drive 300 miles a day, that doesn’t make sense! This cell could save significantly more CO2 in another vehicle. The solution might be to have Electric cars with smaller batteries or plug-in or hybrid cars.
From a macroeconomic point of view We’ll have to see how many high-carbon cars we can replace given the limited supply. The answer is different than figuring out at the micro level if this car is better than this other.
Do you also see a great future for hydrogen in the short term?
In the short term, I’m not so sure. There needs to be a transformation in the hydrogen production industry. If the hydrogen is grey, it’s better than petroleum, but it’s similar to natural gas.
Many people do not know how much hydrogen is already being produced for the petrochemical industry, for fertilizers and many other applications. We also believe that hydrogen will be used for new applications such as steel.
We are sure that this hydrogen market will eventually become carbon neutral or very low. It will then be good to have fuel cell technology and maybe even hydrogen combustion to take advantage of low-carbon hydrogen opportunities.
Is hydrogen really suitable for cars? Many say that hydrogen would be better suited for large vehicles.
Our truck uses two fuel cell systems. It’s the same system as in our cars, but it’s just doubled. We see a future but we don’t know where the dividing line will be below which we will have battery powered vehicles and above which we will have fuel cells. We believe that fuel cells make a lot of sense for larger vehicles.
What are your main research areas at the TRI?
“Carbon is the enemy, not the engine type”
- The hybrid champion is challenged by the arrival of electric vehicles. Toyota is reacting to this and is going on an adventure with 5 pure electric cars by 2026 in Europe and the promise to be CO2-neutral there by 2040.
- But Toyota insists electric cars won’t solve everything, especially given material shortages. The company believes it’s greener to use the battery cells available in a variety of hybrid vehicles than to park them in a small batch of cars.
- Toyota is also launching its fifth generation Prius. In Europe there will only be plug-in hybrids with an electric range of 69 kilometers to ensure small daily journeys. The icing on the cake, a roof with solar panels should allow you to charge 8.7 km of autonomy per day for a vehicle that shows 19 grams of CO2 per km.
- Toyota also knows that some customers like the feel of a classic car. Lexus is working on a manual electric car and Toyota on a hydrogen car.
There is robotics. We assume that the demand for machines will increase.
There is energy and materials. Over the last 80 years, the internal combustion engine has evolved from a very underpowered engine with low density, durability and reliability to a product that runs 150,000 miles and saves up to 40% fuel. We think it will be equivalent in batteries.
We also have a group interested in human-centric artificial intelligence, which is half behavioral scientists and half machine learning.
The experience of the people in a car is most important. What is the actual business of Google, Facebook & Co.? It’s about predicting what each person wants.
We’re in the same business. What form of mobility will help improve the lives of this client and that other client? To answer that, you have to understand people well.
How are cars used? How high will the acceptance of new technologies be? This is very important to know in connection with the fight against climate change.
A few years ago you didn’t want to talk about electric vehicles, why this strategic change?
It is quite clear that 20 years ago no one expected lithium-ion batteries to reach the quality they have today. And even at the current high price of lithium, it’s still a lot cheaper than what the curve showed us back then.
Our philosophy is to explore and pause when it doesn’t work to try again later. We have done this twice in the past with battery-powered vehicles. The third is the good one.
In the past, we didn’t want to make promises we couldn’t keep. But that is changing.
How does Toyota protect itself from relying on the right technologies in the battery?
We are lucky to be great because we are trying many things at the same time and most of them will be wrong. We make a lot of bets.
Are there many bets we don’t know about?
Oh, we’re failing miserably. I tell my scientists that I expect them to fail a third of the time to find answers more or less similar to what already exists another third, but I hope their answer will be the last one third time the newest will be better, even if it’s just a little bit. Then I hope a third of the time, a “Wow, that’s very cool”.
Are you actually a venture capitalist?
Absolutely. It’s very risky. We also have a venture capital arm for partnerships.
How does that work with Japanese culture?
Coming from the American Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, I arrived with the “big risk, big reward” culture. There I was told “If you don’t miss a third of the time, the problem you’re trying to solve is too simple..
Since Darpa is so respected in Japan, they have given us the freedom to do the same. In Japan it is much more difficult to get back up after a failure. But there is recognition in the upper echelons of business that this needs to change.
Where does Europe stand in this technological battle between the United States and Asia?
In technology, Europe is very strong. I don’t know if the technological transition between research labs and industry is good. This is a crucial way for research successes to become commercial successes. It’s one of the great strengths of the United States.
The keywords
“A cell sitting in a car that drives 20 miles per day, in a battery pack that can drive 300 miles per day, that does not mean anything!”
“What is the actual business of Google, Facebook & Co.? predict what each person wants. We’re in the same business, but for mobility.”
“Twenty years ago, no one expected lithium-ion batteries to achieve today’s quality.”
“In technology, Europe is very strong. I don’t know if the technological transition between research labs and industry is good there, that is the strength of the United States.”
“Many people do not know how much hydrogen is already being produced.”
“How are cars used? How are new technologies accepted? This is very important to know in the fight against climate change.”